Lee VJ, Chen MI. Effectiveness of Neuraminidase Inhibitors for Preventing Staff Absenteeism during Pandemic Influenza. Emerg Infect Dis. 2007 Mar
We used a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) meta-population model, together with scenario, sensitivity, and simulation analyses, to determine stockpiling strategies for neuraminidase inhibitors that would minimize absenteeism among healthcare workers. A pandemic with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.5 resulted in peak absenteeism of 10%. Treatment decreased peak absenteeism to 8%, while 8 weeks´ prophylaxis reduced it to 2%. For pandemics with higher R0, peak absenteeism exceeded 20% occasionally and 6 weeks´ prophylaxis reduced peak absenteeism by 75%. Insufficient duration of prophylaxis increased peak absenteeism compared with treatment only. Earlier pandemic detection and initiation of prophylaxis may render shorter prophylaxis durations ineffective. Eight weeks´ prophylaxis substantially reduced peak absenteeism under a broad range of assumptions for severe pandemics (peak absenteeism >10%). Small investments in treatment and prophylaxis, if adequate and timely, can reduce absenteeism among essential staff.
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