Su Y, Wu R, Liu P, Li Z, Pu J, Wang L. Integrated region-specific modeling of H5 avian influenza in Asia using ENSO-based forecasts. One Health. 2026 Jan 7;22:101322
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly of the H5 subtype, remains a persistent threat to poultry, wildlife, and public health across Asia. This study quantifies the influence of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) as the primary predictor, on the climate-driven dynamics of H5 HPAI through region- and host-stratified generalized additive models (GAMs). Seven region-host strata across Asia were modeled separately, revealing pronounced heterogeneity in event frequency. A clear negative correlation with MEI was identified in domestic poultry across East and South Asia, where higher MEI values, corresponding to El Ni?o conditions, were linked to reduced event frequencies. In contrast, wild bird populations in East and South Asia displayed irregular, multimodal response patterns to MEI, suggesting phase-specific sensitivities to climate variability. A recurrent neural network (RNN) was further employed to forecast MEI trends, which were then incorporated into the GAMs to predict event dynamics. The forecasts highlighted continued epidemic pressure in East Asia´s wild birds, in contrast to stable or declining trends elsewhere. Given the zoonotic potential of H5 viruses, these climate-informed risk forecasts could help inform timely interventions to prevent animal-to-human transmission and support integrated One Health preparedness frameworks. This integrative statistical-deep learning framework offers valuable support for short-term early warning and regionally targeted prevention strategies for H5 HPAI preparedness across Asia.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]Emergence and antigenic characterisation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses with hemagglutinin substitutions N158K and K189R during the 2024/25 influenza season 13 hours ago
- Epitope specificity shapes the CD4+ T cell response to influenza virus infection in mice 13 hours ago
- Vaccination against H5 HP avian influenza virus leads to persistent immune response in wild king penguins 1 days ago
- Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity of Influenza B Viruses Based on Whole-Genome Analysis in Japan and Myanmar, 2016-2020 1 days ago
- Assessing HPAI-H5 transmission risk across wild bird migratory flyways in the United States 1 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


