Movahedi Nia Z, Bragazzi N, Gizo I, Gillies M, Gar. Integrating deep-learning methods and web-based data sources for surveillance, forecasting and early warning of avian influenza. J R Soc Interface. 2026 Jan 14;23(234):20250578
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), especially the H5N1 subtype has caused repeated global outbreaks, primarily affecting birds, but occasionally spreading between humans. These events pose serious public health and economic risks, demanding enhanced surveillance. This study evaluates novel web-based data for predicting HPAI outbreaks using machine learning models in Canada as a case study. Seven web-based sources, Google Trends, Google News, Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT), Reddit, Facebook, minimum temperature and air quality (UV index and CO levels), were automatically collected and integrated through an application programming interface (API)-driven pipeline and combined with historical HPAI cases. Forecasting was performed using deep-learning models: gated recurrent unit (GRU), long short-term memory (LSTM) and their combination with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Classical machine learning models, random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM) and naive Bayes (NB), were included for comparison. Model performance was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation. Feature importance was assessed using permutation methods and the Mann-Whitney U test. GRU delivered the most accurate forecasts. Historical case data were the most important factor (p < 0.01), followed by Facebook activity and minimum temperature. These findings suggest that integrating diverse data with machine learning enhances early HPAI detection, enabling timely public health responses and mitigating economic impacts.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]Emergence and antigenic characterisation of influenza A(H3N2) viruses with hemagglutinin substitutions N158K and K189R during the 2024/25 influenza season 13 hours ago
- Epitope specificity shapes the CD4+ T cell response to influenza virus infection in mice 13 hours ago
- Vaccination against H5 HP avian influenza virus leads to persistent immune response in wild king penguins 1 days ago
- Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Diversity of Influenza B Viruses Based on Whole-Genome Analysis in Japan and Myanmar, 2016-2020 1 days ago
- Assessing HPAI-H5 transmission risk across wild bird migratory flyways in the United States 1 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


