de Jong, S.P.J., Conlan, A.J.K., Han, A.X. et al. Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US. Nat Commun 16, 4605 (2025)
Due to its climatic variability, complex mobility networks and geographic expanse, the United States represents a compelling setting to explore the transmission processes that lead to heterogeneous yearly seasonal influenza epidemics. By analyzing genomic and epidemiological data collected in the US from 2014 to 2023, we show that epidemics consisted of multiple co-circulating transmission lineages that could emerge from all regions and often rapidly expanded. Lineage spread was characterized by strong spatiotemporal hierarchies and lineage size correlated with timing of establishment in the US. Mechanistic epidemic simulations, supported by phylogeographic analyses, suggest that competition between lineages on a network of human mobility consistent with commuting flows drove lineage dynamics. Our results suggest that the processes that disseminate viruses nationwide are highly structured, but variability in the short-term processes that determine the locations, timing, and explosiveness of initial epidemic sparks limits predictability of regional and national epidemics.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]Mass mortality at penguin mega-colonies due to avian cholera confounds H5N1 HPAIV surveillance in Antarctica 15 hours ago
- [preprint]How the 1918-1920 Influenza Pandemic Spread Across Switzerland - Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Incidence and Mortality 15 hours ago
- Influenza C Virus in Children With Acute Bronchiolitis and Febrile Seizures 19 hours ago
- Feasibility and Safety of Aerosolized Influenza Virus Challenge in Humans Using Two Modern Delivery Systems 19 hours ago
- Avian Influenza Weekly Update # 1026: 12 December 2025 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


