Aims: Outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry farms are currently increasing in frequency, with devastating consequences for animal welfare, farmers and supply chains. Some studies have documented the direct spread of the avian influenza virus between farms. Prevention of spread between farms relies on biosecurity surveillance and control measures. However, the evolution of an outbreak on a farm might vary depending on the virus strain and poultry species involved; this would have important implications for surveillance systems, epidemiological investigations and control measures.

Methods and results: In this study, we utilized existing parameter estimates from the literature to evaluate the predicted course of an epidemic in a standard poultry flock with 10,000 birds. We used a stochastic SEIR simulation model to simulate outbreaks in different species and with different virus subtypes. The simulations predicted large differences in the duration and severity of outbreaks, depending on the virus subtypes. For both turkeys and chickens, outbreaks with HPAI were of shorter duration than outbreaks with LPAI. In outbreaks involving the infection of chickens with different virus subtypes, the shortest epidemic involved H7N7 and HPAIV H5N1 (median duration of 9 and 17 days, respectively) and the longest involved H5N2 (median duration of 68 days). The most severe outbreaks (number of chickens infected) were predicted for H5N1, H7N1 and H7N3 virus subtypes, and the least severe for H5N2 and H7N7, in which outbreaks for the latter subtype were predicted to develop most slowly.

Conclusions: These simulation results suggest that surveillance of certain subtypes of avian influenza virus, in chicken flocks in particular, needs to be sensitive and timely if infection is to be detected with sufficient time to implement control measures. The variability in the predictions highlights that avian influenza outbreaks are different in severity, speed and duration, so surveillance and disease response need to be nuanced and fit the specific context of poultry species and virus subtypes.