Lei H, Zhang N, Niu B, Wang X, Xiao S, Du X, Chen. Effect of Rapid Urbanization in Mainland China on the Seasonal Influenza Epidemic: Spatiotemporal Analysis of Surveillance Data From 2010 to 2017. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2023 Jul 7;9:e41435
Background: The world is undergoing an unprecedented wave of urbanization. However, the effect of rapid urbanization during the early or middle stages of urbanization on seasonal influenza transmission remains unknown. Since about 70% of the world population live in low-income countries, exploring the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission in urbanized countries is significant for global infection prediction and prevention.
Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the effect of rapid urbanization on influenza transmission in China.
Methods: We performed spatiotemporal analyses of province-level influenza surveillance data collected in Mainland China from April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2017. An agent-based model based on hourly human contact-related behaviors was built to simulate the influenza transmission dynamics and to explore the potential mechanism of the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission.
Results: We observed persistent differences in the influenza epidemic attack rates among the provinces of Mainland China across the 7-year study period, and the attack rate in the winter waves exhibited a U-shaped relationship with the urbanization rates, with a turning point at 50%-60% urbanization across Mainland China. Rapid Chinese urbanization has led to increases in the urban population density and percentage of the workforce but decreases in household size and the percentage of student population. The net effect of increased influenza transmission in the community and workplaces but decreased transmission in households and schools yielded the observed U-shaped relationship.
Conclusions: Our results highlight the complicated effects of urbanization on the seasonal influenza epidemic in China. As the current urbanization rate in China is approximately 59%, further urbanization with no relevant interventions suggests a worrisome increasing future trend in the influenza epidemic attack rate.
Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the effect of rapid urbanization on influenza transmission in China.
Methods: We performed spatiotemporal analyses of province-level influenza surveillance data collected in Mainland China from April 1, 2010, to March 31, 2017. An agent-based model based on hourly human contact-related behaviors was built to simulate the influenza transmission dynamics and to explore the potential mechanism of the impact of urbanization on influenza transmission.
Results: We observed persistent differences in the influenza epidemic attack rates among the provinces of Mainland China across the 7-year study period, and the attack rate in the winter waves exhibited a U-shaped relationship with the urbanization rates, with a turning point at 50%-60% urbanization across Mainland China. Rapid Chinese urbanization has led to increases in the urban population density and percentage of the workforce but decreases in household size and the percentage of student population. The net effect of increased influenza transmission in the community and workplaces but decreased transmission in households and schools yielded the observed U-shaped relationship.
Conclusions: Our results highlight the complicated effects of urbanization on the seasonal influenza epidemic in China. As the current urbanization rate in China is approximately 59%, further urbanization with no relevant interventions suggests a worrisome increasing future trend in the influenza epidemic attack rate.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Chile 3 hours ago
- [preprint] Avian Influenza Virus Infections in Felines: A Systematic Review of Two Decades of Literature 8 hours ago
- Exploring the effect of clinical case definitions on influenza vaccine effectiveness estimation at primary care level: Results from the end-of-season 2022-23 VEBIS multicentre study in Europe 8 hours ago
- Assessment of potential adverse events following the 2022-2023 seasonal influenza vaccines among U.S. adults aged 65 years and older 8 hours ago
- Novel Avian Influenza A(H5N6) in Wild Birds, South Korea, 2023 8 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]