Lei H, Yang L, Yang M, Tang J, Yang J, Tan M, Yang. Quantifying the rebound of influenza epidemics after the adjustment of zero-COVID policy in China. PNAS Nexus. 2023 May 4;2(5):pgad152
The coexistence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and seasonal influenza epidemics has become a potential threat to human health, particularly in China in the oncoming season. However, with the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the rebound extent of the influenza activities is still poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SVIRS) model to simulate influenza transmission and calibrated it using influenza surveillance data from 2018 to 2022. We projected the influenza transmission over the next 3 years using the SVIRS model. We observed that, in epidemiological year 2021-2022, the reproduction numbers of influenza in southern and northern China were reduced by 64.0 and 34.5%, respectively, compared with those before the pandemic. The percentage of people susceptible to influenza virus increased by 138.6 and 57.3% in southern and northern China by October 1, 2022, respectively. After relaxing NPIs, the potential accumulation of susceptibility to influenza infection may lead to a large-scale influenza outbreak in the year 2022-2023, the scale of which may be affected by the intensity of the NPIs. And later relaxation of NPIs in the year 2023 would not lead to much larger rebound of influenza activities in the year 2023-2024. To control the influenza epidemic to the prepandemic level after relaxing NPIs, the influenza vaccination rates in southern and northern China should increase to 53.8 and 33.8%, respectively. Vaccination for influenza should be advocated to reduce the potential reemergence of the influenza epidemic in the next few years.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Host Species Contribution to the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2024-2025 H5N1 Epidemic in Italy 9 hours ago
- mRNA-based influenza vaccine expands the B cell response breadth in humans 9 hours ago
- Molecular surveillance and predictive risk modelling of avian influenza virus in wild birds in Egypt 9 hours ago
- Germany as a key transit hub for the emergence and spread of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5 clade 2.3.4.4b reassortants in Europe 1 days ago
- Degradation of ACSL3 by influenza A virus shifts unfolded protein response from antiviral defense to viral evasion 1 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


