Dong W, Zhang P, Xu QL, Ren ZD, Wang J. A Study on a Neural Network Risk Simulation Model Construction for Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Outbreaks in Humans in China during 2013-2017. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Aug 31;19(17
The main purposes of this study were to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of H7N9 human infections during 2013-2017, and to construct a neural network risk simulation model of H7N9 outbreaks in China and evaluate their effects. First, ArcGIS 10.6 was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis, and cluster patterns ofH7N9 outbreaks were analyzed in China during 2013-2017 to detect outbreaks´ hotspots. During the study period, the incidence of H7N9 outbreaks in China was high in the eastern and southeastern coastal areas of China, with a tendency to spread to the central region. Moran´s I values of global spatial autocorrelation of H7N9 outbreaks in China from 2013 to 2017 were 0.080128, 0.073792, 0.138015, 0.139221 and 0.050739, respectively (p < 0.05) indicating a statistically significant positive correlation of the epidemic. Then, SPSS 20.0 was used to analyze the correlation between H7N9 outbreaks in China and population, livestock production, the distance between the case and rivers, poultry farming, poultry market, vegetation index, etc. Statistically significant influencing factors screened out by correlation analysis were population of the city, average vegetation of the city, and the distance between the case and rivers (p < 0.05), which were included in the neural network risk simulation model of H7N9 outbreaks in China. The simulation accuracy of the neural network risk simulation model of H7N9 outbreaks in China from 2013 to 2017 were 85.71%, 91.25%, 91.54%, 90.49% and 92.74%, and the AUC were 0.903, 0.976, 0.967, 0.963 and 0.970, respectively, showing a good simulation effect of H7N9 epidemics in China. The innovation of this study lies in the epidemiological study of H7N9 outbreaks by using a variety of technical means, and the construction of a neural network risk simulation model of H7N9 outbreaks in China. This study could provide valuable references for the prevention and control of H7N9 outbreaks in China.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- The evolution, complexity, and diversity of swine influenza viruses in China: A hidden public health threat 19 hours ago
- MHC class II proteins mediate sialic acid independent entry of human and avian H2N2 influenza A viruses 19 hours ago
- Histopathologic Features and Viral Antigen Distribution of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Clade 2.3.4.4b from the 2022–2023 Outbreak in Iowa Wild Birds 19 hours ago
- Detection and characterization of H5N1 HPAIV in environmental samples from a dairy farm 23 hours ago
- Genomic Characterization of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A H5N1 Virus Newly Emerged in Dairy Cattle 23 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]