Yang H, Jin Z. A stochastic model explains the periodicity phenomenon of influenza on network. Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 25;11(1):20996
Influenza is an infectious disease with obvious periodic changes over time. It is of great practical significance to explore the non-environment-related factors that cause this regularity for influenza control and individual protection. In this paper, based on the randomness of population number and the heterogeneity of population contact, we have established a stochastic infectious disease model about influenza based on the degree of the network, and obtained the power spectral density function by using the van Kampen expansion method of the master equation. The relevant parameters are obtained by fitting the influenza data of sentinel hospitals. The results of the numerical analysis show that: (1) for the infected, the infection period of patients who go to the sentinel hospitals is particularly different from the others who do not; (2) for all the infected, there is an obvious nonlinear relationship between their infection period and the visiting rate of the influenza sentinel hospitals, the infection rate and the degree. Among them, only the infection period of patients who do not go to the sentinel hospitals decreased monotonously with the infection rate (increased monotonously with the visiting rate), while the rest had a non-monotonic relationship.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Evolution of H7N9 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in the context of vaccination 11 hours ago
- Cost-effectiveness of high-dose influenza vaccination in the Netherlands: Incorporating the impact on both respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations 11 hours ago
- First human case of avian influenza A (H10N3) in Southwest China [preprint] 2 days ago
- Molecular characterization of the whole genome of H9N2 avian influenza virus isolated from Egyptian poultry farms 2 days ago
- Genetic drift and purifying selection shape within-host influenza A virus populations during natural swine infections 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]