Venkatramanan S, Sadilek A, Fadikar A, Barrett CL,. Forecasting influenza activity using machine-learned mobility map. Nat Commun. 2021 Feb 9;12(1):726
Human mobility is a primary driver of infectious disease spread. However, existing data is limited in availability, coverage, granularity, and timeliness. Data-driven forecasts of disease dynamics are crucial for decision-making by health officials and private citizens alike. In this work, we focus on a machine-learned anonymized mobility map (hereon referred to as AMM) aggregated over hundreds of millions of smartphones and evaluate its utility in forecasting epidemics. We factor AMM into a metapopulation model to retrospectively forecast influenza in the USA and Australia. We show that the AMM model performs on-par with those based on commuter surveys, which are sparsely available and expensive. We also compare it with gravity and radiation based models of mobility, and find that the radiation model´s performance is quite similar to AMM and commuter flows. Additionally, we demonstrate our model´s ability to predict disease spread even across state boundaries. Our work contributes towards developing timely infectious disease forecasting at a global scale using human mobility datasets expanding their applications in the area of infectious disease epidemiology.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Epidemiological and Virological Characteristics of H9N2 Avian Influenza Virus in Jiangsu Province, China, 2024 11 hours ago
- Innate Pathway Selection Modulates Antibody and T-Cell Responses to Mosaic Influenza Nucleoprotein in Cattle 1 days ago
- Game Over for the Baseline: Influenza Hospitalization Patterns Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic (FluSurv-NET, 2009–2025) 1 days ago
- Immunity to Influenza Viruses and Vaccines: From Broader Immunity to Chrono-Optimization and Safety 1 days ago
- Toward Predicting Pandemic Potential: A Comparative Analysis of Virus-Host Interactions Between Diverse Influenza A Viruses and the Human Innate Immune System 1 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


