Lou J, Zhao S, Cao L, et al. Predicting the dominant influenza A serotype by quantifying mutation activities. Int J Infect Dis. 2020;S1201-9712(20)30682-2
Data and methods: A total number of 8097 and 7090 HA sequences for A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 were collected from 2008/09 to 2018/19 flu season in seven countries or regions. And g-measure, which reflected the overall level of genetic activity through time, was considered to predict dominant flu serotype in population.
Results: The model discriminated the influenza serotypes well with the sensitivity = 0.84, precision = 0.79 and AUC = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.54 - 0.97), and explained 42% of the serotypes variability with the R2.
Conclusions: Our study suggests that the dominance of flu serotype in population can be well discriminated by genetic mutation activities from sample strains. By the data-driven computational framework, the genetic mutation can be quantified to trace the genetic activities on a real-time basis, and provide early warning for the coming flu season.
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