Humphreys JM, et al. Waterfowl occurrence and residence time as indicators of H5 and H7 avian influenza in North American Poultry. Sci Rep. 2020 Feb 13;10(1):2592.
Avian influenza (AI) affects wild aquatic birds and poses hazards to human health, food security, and wildlife conservation globally. Accordingly, there is a recognized need for new methods and tools to help quantify the dynamic interaction between wild bird hosts and commercial poultry. Using satellite-marked waterfowl, we applied Bayesian joint hierarchical modeling to concurrently model species distributions, residency times, migration timing, and disease occurrence probability under an integrated animal movement and disease distribution modeling framework. Our results indicate that migratory waterfowl are positively related to AI occurrence over North America such that as waterfowl occurrence probability or residence time increase at a given location, so too does the chance of a commercial poultry AI outbreak. Analyses also suggest that AI occurrence probability is greatest during our observed waterfowl northward migration, and less during the southward migration. Methodologically, we found that when modeling disparate facets of disease systems at the wildlife-agriculture interface, it is essential that multiscale spatial patterns be addressed to avoid mistakenly inferring a disease process or disease-environment relationship from a pattern evaluated at the improper spatial scale. The study offers important insights into migratory waterfowl ecology and AI disease dynamics that aid in better preparing for future outbreaks.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- Host Species Contribution to the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of the 2024-2025 H5N1 Epidemic in Italy 16 hours ago
- mRNA-based influenza vaccine expands the B cell response breadth in humans 16 hours ago
- Molecular surveillance and predictive risk modelling of avian influenza virus in wild birds in Egypt 16 hours ago
- Germany as a key transit hub for the emergence and spread of high pathogenicity avian influenza H5 clade 2.3.4.4b reassortants in Europe 2 days ago
- Degradation of ACSL3 by influenza A virus shifts unfolded protein response from antiviral defense to viral evasion 2 days ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


