Osthus D, Daughton AR, Priedhorsky R. Even a good influenza forecasting model can benefit from internet-based nowcasts, but those benefits are limited. PLoS Comput Biol. 2019 Feb 1;15(2):e1006599.
The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when "perfect" nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- The surveillance programme for avian influenza (AI) in Norwegian wildlife 2025 48 minute(s) ago
- The surveillance programme for avian influenza (AI) in poultry in Norway 2025 55 minute(s) ago
- Emergence of Novel Reassortant H3N2 Avian Influenza Viruses in Southern China: Genetic Complexity and Pathogenicity in Chickens and Mice 1 hours ago
- Pathological evidence of neurotropism and oculotropism in wild black-headed gulls naturally infected with H5N1 high pathogenicity avian influenza 1 hours ago
- Birth cohort effects in adults associated with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine effectiveness 14 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]


