Spreco A, Eriksson O, Dahlstr?m ?, Cowling BJ, Tim. Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009~2014. Emerg Infect Dis. 2018 Oct;24(10):1868-1873
The growing availability of big data in healthcare and public health opens possibilities for infectious disease control in local settings. We prospectively evaluated a method for integrated local detection and prediction (nowcasting) of influenza epidemics over 5 years, using the total population in ?sterg?tland County, Sweden. We used routine health information system data on influenza-diagnosis cases and syndromic telenursing data for July 2009-June 2014 to evaluate epidemic detection, peak-timing prediction, and peak-intensity prediction. Detection performance was satisfactory throughout the period, except for the 2011-12 influenza A(H3N2) season, which followed a season with influenza B and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus activity. Peak-timing prediction performance was satisfactory for the 4 influenza seasons but not the pandemic. Peak-intensity levels were correctly categorized for the pandemic and 2 of 4 influenza seasons. We recommend using versions of this method modified with regard to local use context for further evaluations using standard methods.
See Also:
Latest articles in those days:
- [preprint]Susceptibility of bovine respiratory and mammary epithelial cells to avian and mammalian derived clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses 22 hours ago
- Genetic Diversity of H10N3 Avian Influenza Virus Isolated from Anhui Province, China 23 hours ago
- Molecular origion of human infection with a novel avian influenza A H10N3 virus in China, 2021 23 hours ago
- Clade 2.3.4.4b but not historical clade 1 HA replicating RNA vaccine protects against bovine H5N1 challenge in mice 23 hours ago
- GGCX promotes Eurasian avian-like H1N1 swine influenza virus adaption to interspecies receptor binding 23 hours ago
[Go Top] [Close Window]