Vaccine Will Not Stop Next Flu Pandemic, Official Warns

Countries should plan measures other than vaccinations to deal with a possible pandemic, said Who Western Pacific regional director Shigeru Omi.

“No matter how much they manufacture, expand production, I don’t think the vaccines available will be meeting all the requirement,” Omi said in Hong Kong.

Who experts believe bird flu is the mostly likely candidate to combine with a human virus, creating a new strain that could trigger a worldwide pandemic and kill an estimated two million to seven million people.

Omi called that a “most conservative” estimate.

Another problem is that a vaccine would not be mass produced until it is tailored to the specific flu strain causing the pandemic after it breaks out – meaning a delay of five or six months before the vaccines becomes available – Omi said.

“Vaccine is important, but if somebody thinks that a vaccine is a panacea ... that is wrong,” he said.

Governments should prepare vaccine-less contingency response plans, including quarantine measures and stocking up on antiviral drugs, Omi said.

Influenza pandemics historically occur every two or three decades when a flu strain’s genetic changes dramatically, making it resistant to whatever immunities people have developed from previous outbreaks.

Still, Omi said vaccines are somewhat useful in controlling a possible bird flu pandemic by preventing infected people from developing a full-blown case of the deadly illness.

Separately, Omi also said ducks are playing a larger role than chickens in spreading bird flu because ducks are more resilient to the disease.

He said officials suspect the duck theory may explain recent human cases that emerged in areas where chicken infections did not occur.

Bird flu this year has killed 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam, and millions of chickens across Asia.