AUSTRALIA was overdue for a massive influenza outbreak in which thousands could die, health experts warned yesterday.

Health authorities in Australia have been working with the World Health Organisation to develop a new flu vaccine to combat the potentially deadly virus next winter.

But even those who do get the new flu shot from their GP could find themselves unprotected amid an influenza pandemic.

WHOs global influenza program co-ordinator, Dr Klaus Stohr, said pandemics occur every 20 to 30 years, with the last one hitting Australia in 1968.

As a result Australia was now overdue for a pandemic, with the deadly bird flu which has infected millions of chickens in Asia posing one of the greatest threats.

Dr Stohr said so far the H5N1 avian influenza had only been transmitted from chickens to humans, killing about 29 people this year.

But if the bird virus mixed with a human virus and transmitted between people there could be a pandemic racing around the world within months.

“We are overdue, certainly for a pandemic,” Dr Stohr said.

“You have millions of chickens which are affected ... 80 per cent of the farms are backyard farms, a few chickens in the back yard, playing with children.

“So the reason to be concerned is certainly there.

“We have never been as close to pandemic as we are now, thats the generic assessment of all the experts and also the assessment of the WHO.”

While there would be no way to stop such a virus spreading globally, it was up to countries to contain it.

Dr Stohr said it was still important for people, especially those aged over 65, to have flu shots, because influenza kills up to one million people a year in developed countries.

“Its important that we dont forget that between these pandemics which occur every 20 to 30 years more people are dying from influenza than during these pandemics,” he said.

Deputy director of the WHO Collaborating Centre in Australia Mr Alan Hampson said Australia had begun to stockpile anti-virals to help deal with a pandemic.

He said the fact that many Australians were opting to have flu shots each year meant Australia already had good relationships with vaccine producers and could expect supplies to continue if a pandemic erupted.

“You can never be totally ready for a pandemic, but when you put us on a global scale were as well prepared as any country,” he said.

About 20 per cent of Australians had a flu shot in winter 2003, with |80 per cent of those aged over 65 receiving a vaccine.

About 1500 to 2000 Australians die as a result of influenza each year.